Middle East Powers Erode US Influence with Mecca Agreement
The Mecca Agreement signed by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey marks a significant shift in the Middle East's regional order. The agreement includes a NATO Article 5-like clause, where an attack on one signatory is considered an attack on all. This commitment was tested just days after signing when the Houthis fired on a Saudi Aramco oil refinery.
The absence of military intervention from Turkey and Pakistan in this instance highlights the complexity of the agreement. Rather than providing security guarantees, it reflects a changing regional landscape where Middle Eastern powers are shaping their own security order.
For decades, the United States has led a regional order that included Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE, and Israel. However, this order has been under stress due to various factors such as US unpredictability, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and shifts in global energy markets.
The Mecca Agreement represents a move away from US leadership in the region. Regional leaders can no longer count on continuity in US foreign policy, having experienced abrupt shifts in approach over the past few decades.