Middle East Tensions Slam Oil Supply Forecast: IEA Predicts 4% Decline

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its oil supply forecast for 2026 due to renewed hostilities in the Middle East. The agency predicts a decline of 4.3 million barrels per day, which is roughly 4% of global supply.

This revised estimate marks a steeper decline than the 3.7 million bpd drop forecasted in July and brings total supply to the IEA's lowest projection yet for the year at 102.02 million bpd.

The agency attributes this decrease to ongoing disruptions, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and elevated fuel prices, which have weighed on consumption.