Midwest Rains, Black Sea Conflict, and Farm Bill Markups: Key Market Themes

Grain markets ended July on a down note as forecasts for widespread rains across key corn and soybean growing areas in the Midwest appeared to scupper a summer rally.

Rainfall totals will be at the top of the list when it comes to markets next week, particularly across the Dakotas, Nebraska, northwest Iowa, and Minnesota. Significant disappointment in rainfall totals could spark a reaction.

Crop condition ratings for corn and soybeans as of Sunday are likely to show little movement, maybe shifting up or down a point, said Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier. The USDA will release the Crop Progress report on Monday afternoon.

The Black Sea region is also expected to continue feeding volatility in the wheat market, with potential spillovers due to Russia and Ukraine's attacks on shipping and ports. This has raised concerns about grain flows from the Black Sea.