Monarch PMS Forecasts Gold and Silver Price Ranges by End-2026
Monarch PMS has released a report predicting significant price movements for gold and silver by the end of 2026. The report outlines three scenarios, with varying probabilities.
In its base case, which carries a 55% probability, Monarch PMS forecasts that gold will reach $4,300-$4,700/oz and silver $70-$85/oz by year-end. This scenario assumes the US Federal Reserve holds rates through September, energy prices normalize, real yields plateau, and central banks maintain purchases of around 250 tonnes a quarter.
The bear case, with a 20% probability, sees gold at $3,400-$3,900/oz and silver at $45-$55/oz if the Fed delivers a rate hike in September, oil falls further, and disinflation turns into demand weakness. The main headwind is the 10-year TIPS real yield, which stands at 2.41% and remains a competing return to a zero-coupon asset like gold.
In the bull case, with a 25% probability, gold could reach $5,000-$5,600/oz and silver $95-$120/oz if weakness in the labor market forces the Fed to ease repo rates, real yields roll over, institutional reallocation into precious metals resumes, and physical tightness in silver returns.