Monarch PMS Forecasts Gold at $4,300-$4,700, Silver at $70-$85 by End of 2026

Monarch PMS, an investment firm based in India, has released a report outlining its expectations for the price of gold and silver by the end of 2026. The company predicts that gold will reach $4,300-$4,700 per ounce and silver will hit $70-$85 per ounce in its base case scenario.

The base case scenario assumes that the US Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady through September, energy prices will normalize, real yields will plateau, and central banks will continue to purchase gold at a rate of around 250 tonnes per quarter. This scenario has a probability of 55%.

In its bear case scenario, with a 20% probability, Monarch PMS expects gold to drop to $3,400-$3,900 per ounce and silver to fall to $45-$55 per ounce. The company attributes this potential decline to a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September, further falls in oil prices, and a shift from disinflation to demand weakness.

Monarch PMS also presents a bull case scenario, with a 25% probability, which would see gold reach $5,000-$5,600 per ounce and silver hit $95-$120 per ounce. This outcome is contingent on a weakening labour market forcing the Federal Reserve to ease repo rates, real yields rolling over, institutional investors returning to precious metals, and physical tightness in the silver market.