Monarch PMS Forecasts Gold at $4,700/Ounce by End-2026
Monarch PMS, an investment management firm, has released its latest forecast for gold and silver prices. According to their base case scenario, which they assign a 55% probability to, gold is expected to trade between $4,300-$4,700 an ounce by the end of 2026, while silver could reach $70-$85 per ounce.
The firm's bear case, with a 20% probability, sees gold prices at $3,400-$3,900 an ounce and silver at $45-$55 per ounce. This scenario assumes that the US Federal Reserve will deliver a rate hike in September, leading to further decline in energy prices and disinflation turning into demand weakness.
On the other hand, the bull case, with a 25% probability, predicts gold could reach $5,000-$5,600 an ounce and silver $95-$120 per ounce. This scenario is based on the assumption that weakness in the labor market will force the Fed to ease repo rates, leading to real yields rolling over and institutional investors returning to precious metals.
Monarch PMS also points out that silver's supply-demand fundamentals remain supportive, with a sixth consecutive annual deficit and a significant drawdown from above-ground stocks since 2021. The firm expects physical tightness in the market to amplify upside moves if demand strengthens.