Monarch PMS Forecasts Gold at $5,600 and Silver at $120 by Year-End
Monarch PMS, a wealth management firm, has released its outlook on gold and silver prices. In their base-case scenario, they predict that gold will reach $4,300-$4,700 an ounce and silver $70-$85 by the end of 2026.
The forecast is based on several assumptions, including the US Federal Reserve holding rates through September, energy prices normalizing, real yields plateauing, and central banks continuing to buy around 250 tonnes of gold a quarter. The firm assigned a 55% probability to this scenario.
In their bull case, Monarch sees significant upside for gold and silver. They predict that gold could hit $5,600 an ounce and silver $120 by the end of the year, but with only a 25% probability.
The firm's bear case is more dire, with gold potentially falling to $3,400-$3,900 an ounce and silver to $45-$55. This scenario has a 20% probability, and is based on the Federal Reserve delivering a rate hike in September, oil prices declining further, and disinflation evolving into weaker demand.