Moody's Sees Brent Crude Stuck at $90-$110 Until Year-End

Moody's Ratings forecasts that Brent crude oil will remain in the $90-110 per barrel range until the end of 2026, according to its baseline scenario. The agency notes that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting oil trade flows and reducing crude exports.

The recent increase in attacks on vessels in key shipping lanes has weakened the likelihood that oil trade will normalize by early 2027 as previously envisioned. Saudi Arabia's August crude supply fell to 7 million barrels per day, from 7.4 million barrels per day in July, after tankers began using alternative routes.

Moody's expects Brent prices to decline towards $55-75 per barrel in the medium term, following this short-term price range.