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Morgan Stanley Boosts Brent Forecasts Amid Sluggish Middle East Supply

Guavy AI Editorial Team
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Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast for Brent crude prices due to slower-than-expected Middle East supply recovery. The bank expects the market to remain in deficit through Q4 of 2026 and Q1 of 2027.

The sharp decline in oil-on-water storage and onshore inventories, including those in China, has contributed to the tighter crude market. Morgan Stanley sees Brent peaking at $100 per barrel in Q4 2026, up from its previous forecast of $75 for all these quarters.

The bank's revised forecasts also take into account a more drawn-out Middle East supply recovery, which it expects will extend well into 2027.

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