Morgan Stanley Trims Q4 Brent Crude Forecast After US-Iran Deal

Morgan Stanley has lowered its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the fourth quarter of this year by $15 per barrel to $80, following a preliminary agreement between the US and Iran to end their conflict.

The bank's analysts expect that it will take several weeks for tanker flow to be restored, with 50% of production expected to return by September and 80% by December. This is slightly faster than previously anticipated.

Brent crude futures were down 1.3% on Tuesday to $82.06 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate was down 1.5% at $79.55 a barrel. These prices are the lowest since March 10 and significantly lower than their pre-war level of around $70.

Morgan Stanley also noted that the cumulative supply loss from the Middle East since March 1 has reached about 1.4 billion barrels across both crude oil and refined products, relative to the same period in 2025.