Natural Gas Prices Fall as EIA Cuts Third-Quarter Forecast
The September NYMEX natural gas price opened at $2.778/MMBtu and traded lower after the storage print, threatening to snap a two-day advance that had carried the prompt month to its highest level in nearly four weeks.
The Energy Information Administration reported a 16 Bcf injection into storage for the week ending August 14, which was nearly matching a consensus that had clustered between 14 and 15 Bcf. The five-year average build for that calendar week is 29 Bcf, making the print 13 Bcf tighter than seasonal norm.
The supply side has not flinched once during this entire summer and that is the single most important fact in the market. Lower-48 output averaged 111.6 Bcf/d through August, exceeding July's monthly record of 110.7 Bcf/d, with Wednesday's print at 112.0 Bcf/d representing a 2.7% year-over-year increase.
The EIA cut its third-quarter forecast by fifty cents, stating that the Henry Hub spot price will average around $2.87/MMBtu in the third quarter of 2026, down from $3.37/MMBtu in July's STEO. The agency expects natural gas inventories to reach a record 3,985 Bcf at the end of October 2026.