Natural Gas Prices to Remain Elevated Amid Strait of Hormuz Disruptions
Rabobank's Florence Schmit warns that natural gas prices will remain elevated due to fragile supply risks. The European benchmark gas market, specifically TTF Natural Gas, is exposed to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and QatarEnergy's extended force majeure.
Although there has been some recovery in Qatari LNG flows, Rabobank expects TTF prices around €51-52/MWh for Q3-Q4 2026. Winter scenarios range from normalization to escalation, with a base case of gradual easing only once global LNG moves into oversupply next year.
The Strait remains a critical chokepoint for global LNG trade, and any sustained interruption would have significant consequences for both Asian and European gas balances. QatarEnergy's extension of force majeure through mid-October points to a longer period of constrained LNG availability.