NG Gap & Direction Forecaster: MCX Natural Gas Opening-Gap Indicator

The NG Gap & Direction Forecaster is an indicator designed for MCX Natural Gas on the standard 15-minute chart, combining NYMEX Natural Gas (NG1!) and MCX price structure to estimate the next MCX opening-gap direction.

The indicator follows a structured state machine, evaluating confirmed market data during the closing window, overnight carry assessment, and opening validation. It measures how much of the opening gap remains after the first candle, classifies the gap as open, partial, filled by wick, or reclaimed by close, and determines the permitted intraday direction.

The forecast score combines several factors, including NYMEX NG1 fast/slow EMA structure, price position relative to VWAP, RSI momentum, acceptance outside the previous daily range, daily-range location, daily impulse measured in ATR, MCX and NG1 directional alignment, and confidence values are bounded heuristic allocations.

The indicator also provides opening result states, including OPEN HIT / MISS, 15m ACCEPTED / REJECTED, OPEN, PARTIAL, FILLED WICK, and RECLAIMED. It supports alerts for final gap-up or gap-down forecast, overnight carry eligibility or rejection, opening-gap acceptance or rejection, and forecast miss at the open.

It's essential to note that this indicator is an analytical and decision-support tool, not a guarantee of future performance. Natural Gas is highly sensitive to weather forecasts, storage reports, geopolitical developments, liquidity conditions, currency movements, contract rollover, and unexpected news. Always apply independent analysis, appropriate position sizing, and risk management.