Nigeria Misses H1 Budget Oil Target by 38.4m Barrels

Nigeria's upstream sector has maintained a steady recovery in production throughout the first half of this year, despite falling short of its budget crude oil target by an average of 213,815 barrels per day (bpd).

The country produced an estimated 294.6 million barrels of crude oil and condensates during the period, compared to the budget expectation of about 333.0 million barrels, resulting in a production deficit of approximately 38.4 million barrels.

This shortfall represents an estimated gross revenue opportunity of about $2.49 billion, based on the 2026 budget oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel. However, since Brent crude traded above the budget benchmark for much of the first half of the year, the actual notional value of the production deficit is likely much higher.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) data indicated that Nigeria's total liquids production stood at 1.627 million bpd in January before declining to 1.484 million bpd in February, the weakest monthly performance recorded this year. Output recovered to 1.546 million bpd in March, rose to 1.663 million bpd in April, climbed further to 1.701 million bpd in May and reached 1.735 million bpd in June.