Nigeria on Track for Fastest Second-Quarter Growth in Five Years

Nigeria's economy is on track to record its fastest second-quarter growth in five years, according to a BusinessDay model-based nowcast. The projection estimates a 4.5% growth rate for Q2 2026, exceeding previous quarters' performance since 2021.

The improvement in high-frequency economic indicators supports the estimate, with crude oil production rising to 1.56 million barrels per day in June 2026, one of the country's highest monthly production levels in recent years. This increase provides an important tailwind for overall economic activity, even though oil now contributes only a modest share of GDP.

Economists point out that Nigeria's economy remains resilient despite external shocks, thanks to its limited exposure to global shipping costs and supply chain disruptions. The country's growth recovery is becoming increasingly diversified, with the non-oil sector accounting for 96.08% of total output in Q1 2026.

However, the quality of growth remains a concern, as rapid expansion concentrated in finance, telecommunications, and other high-productivity sectors may not immediately translate into stronger employment or higher household purchasing power. Policymakers face the challenge of ensuring that growth becomes more inclusive and broad-based in the quarters ahead.