Nigerian Budget Under Pressure from Low Offshore Oil Output

Nigeria's fiscal position remains under pressure despite a strong rally in international oil prices. This is because persistent weaknesses in offshore crude production have left output below the level assumed in the 2026 federal budget.

The country produced an average of 1.505 million barrels per day of crude oil in July, keeping it marginally above its Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries production quota of 1.50 million bpd for the third consecutive month.

However, this output was 4% lower than in June due to technical disruptions at some offshore oil fields.

The government's revenue plans are still insufficiently met by this performance, despite an improvement from severe production losses in previous years.