Nigeria's Crude Oil Production Sees Modest Increase in January

Nigeria's crude oil production experienced a notable recovery in January 2026, according to data published by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The country's average crude oil production increased by 2.6% month-on-month (MoM) to 1.46 million barrels per day (mb/d), with total liquids production rising to 1.63 mbpd, a 5.4% MoM increase.

The stronger production outturn was mainly driven by a 5.3% MoM increase in oil production from the Erha terminal, which rose to 0.07 mbpd. However, gains were partially offset by production declines at several other terminals, including Bonny, Qua Iboe, Forcados, and Odudu (Amenam Blend).

The combination of higher production volumes and elevated oil prices led to stronger FX accretion to Nigeria's external reserves in January. The FG has anchored its revenue projections in the 2026 budget on a production target of 1.84 mbpd, but analysts at Quest MB expect only a modest increase in production (including condensates) to an average of 1.78 mbpd in 2026.