Nigeria's Oil Output Slips Below Budget Benchmark as Production Falls 4% in July

Nigeria's oil production fell by 4% in July compared to June, according to industry figures. This decline occurred despite the country's crude output remaining above its Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota for the third consecutive month.

The total liquids production averaged 1.67 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, which is significantly below the 1.84 million bpd benchmark used in Nigeria's 2026 federal budget.

Higher international oil prices have provided some relief to government revenues despite the production shortfall. Nigeria's realised crude prices were around 29% above the 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel.

The gap between actual output and the budget benchmark highlights the importance of oil production to Nigeria's fiscal position. A sustained production shortfall can reduce the volume of crude available for export and limit the government's ability to generate revenue required to fund its spending plans.