Nigeria's Oil Production Set to Exceed 1.7 Million Barrels per Day by End of 2026
Nigeria's oil production is expected to exceed 1.7 million barrels per day in the second half of 2026, according to the Nigeria Economic Summit Group's (NESG) 2026 Half-Year Outlook Report.
The NESG projects that improved oil sector fundamentals, including reduced crude theft and better pipeline security, will contribute to this increase in production. The group also expects renewed upstream investment following the resumption of oil block licensing to support further growth.
In addition to higher production levels, stronger crude prices are also expected to provide additional fiscal relief for the Federal Government. The NESG projects international crude prices to average between $70 and $80 per barrel in H2 2026, above the Federal Government's 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel.
However, security remains a critical factor in supporting production growth, and the NESG notes that sustained improvements in security will be necessary to achieve these projections. The group also cautions that global developments, particularly geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, could impact Nigeria's oil revenues.