No Oil Crisis Seen for Estonia Despite Global Reserves at Historic Lows
Despite global oil reserves hitting their lowest level in decades due to the Iran war, experts do not foresee an oil and natural gas crisis for Estonia this winter. According to Alan Vaht, a member of the management board of Terminal, oil reserves are at their lowest level since 1990. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has reported that strategic and commercial stockpiles are also at low levels.
European gas storage facilities contain less natural gas than usual, with levels standing at 55% as of now. This is lower than the typical level for this time of year. Experts predict that if things continue normally, storage levels could reach a maximum of around 75% by winter.
Estonia's gas reserves in Latvia's Inčukalns storage facility are in relatively good shape, with a total of 11 terawatt-hours of gas currently stored. More gas is still being added, and it is realistic that levels could reach around 12 to 15 terawatt-hours by the end of autumn.
The International Energy Agency allowed its member states to use up to one-third of their strategic fuel reserves in the spring, which are normally required to cover 90 days of consumption. Estonia did so, and currently holds enough petrol for 56 days, diesel for 90 days, and jet fuel for 77 days.
Experts warn that rebuilding fuel reserves will take considerable time, even if the conflict with Iran ends. A rapid return to pre-war levels is unlikely, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would need to flow normally for at least six months to achieve this.