Northern Plains Wheat Crop Shows Resilience Amid Global Uncertainty

Scouts participating in the Wheat Quality Council's 2026 Hard Spring and Durum Wheat Quality Tour found a resilient Northern Plains crop, despite weather stress and global market uncertainty. The tour took place from July 20-23, against a backdrop of escalating military activity in the Black Sea region, which raised concerns about grain exports from Russia and Ukraine.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) had forecasted 2026 winter wheat production at 1.03 billion bushels, down 27% from 2025, and tightened global wheat supplies further with a projected 272.84 million tonnes in ending stocks for the 2026-27 crop year.

The tour's final weighted-average yield estimate was 48 bushels per acre across 238 fields, nearly unchanged from the previous year's estimate of 48.3 bpa. Scouts estimated the average spring wheat yield at 48 bpa and durum wheat at 48.2 bpa. The crop benefited from favorable moisture through much of the planting and early growing season but faced uncertainty during July with temperatures climbing above seasonal norms and rainfall becoming increasingly limited.

Despite these challenges, scouts generally described crop conditions as favorable, with strong stand establishment and relatively limited disease pressure. They encountered scattered instances of bacterial leaf streak, ergot, and wheat stem maggot damage but no single disease or insect issue emerged as a defining characteristic of the 2026 crop.