Oil Demand Forecast Torn Between Weakening Global Demand and Persistent Hormuz Risks

The global oil demand forecast has taken a hit due to persistent Hormuz supply risks and rising crude inventories, creating bearish pressure on the energy market.

OPEC reduced its outlook for global demand growth by 580,000 barrels per day in 2026, while the IEA projects a deeper demand destruction of 1.6 million barrels per day.

This bearish trend is countered by geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, where only five ships have passed through this week, excluding container ships.

The EIA is more bullish on natural gas, projecting a record 111.2 Bcf/d in dry gas production for 2026 and an average of 17.4 Bcf/d in LNG exports.