Oil Demand Forecasts Diverge Widely Amid Inventory Build

A recent comparative analysis report by the International Energy Forum (IEF) revealed a significant gap in oil demand forecasts among major energy agencies. The report, released Thursday, showed that projections for 2026 global oil demand growth vary widely, with estimates ranging from a contraction of 1.6 million barrels per day under the IEA to an expansion of 0.6 million barrels per day under OPEC.

The disparity in forecasts is attributed to diverging outlooks for non-OECD consumption, which account for the majority of the difference. The IEA and EIA expect non-OECD oil demand to contract by 1.2 million barrels per day and 0.8 million barrels per day, respectively, while OPEC projects non-OECD consumption to grow by 0.6 million barrels per day.

In the US, commercial crude inventories surged by 17.4 million barrels during the week ending August 7, driven by a 1.14 million barrel-per-day increase in crude imports and a 627,000 barrel-per-day reduction in exports. The build was the largest single-week increase so far this year.