Commodities
Oil Export Disruptions Drain Inventories, Raise Crude Price Risk
Global oil supply rose to 101.5 million barrels per day in July 2026, but export disruptions led to a decline of 69 million barrels in observed global oil inventories.
The Strait of Hormuz saw only 13 vessel transits per day over the five days through August 11, near its lowest level since May 12. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium halted Black Sea loadings for the third time in a month.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Brent crude averaged $87 per barrel in 2026 and $69 in 2027, assuming most regional crude production returns near pre-conflict levels by early 2027.