Oil Price Forecasts Soar as Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Persist

Goldman Sachs and HSBC have raised their oil price forecasts in response to persistent disruptions in Middle East shipping. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil supplies, has been affected by attacks on Saudi energy facilities and threats from Iran.

According to Goldman Sachs, Brent crude could climb above $120 a barrel if average Gulf oil output remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels in 2027. The bank also noted that Brent crude could fall into the $60s under a downside scenario where output rises by 1 million barrels per day.

HSBC raised its price forecasts to $90 and $85 a barrel for 2026 and 2027, respectively, citing an expectation of continued disruptions. The bank does not expect the market to return to balance until mid-2027, implying further inventory drawdowns in coming quarters.