Oil Price Predictions Under Threat from Prolonged Conflict

J.P. Morgan analysts have raised questions about the accuracy of oil price predictions based on current assumptions, suggesting that the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz may last longer than expected.

The analysts pointed out that despite repeated delays and extensions of the conflict timeline, the market has consistently pushed normalization further into the future.

The J.P. Morgan team warned that for the conflict to end, some red line needs to be crossed - whether in the economy, financial markets, or inflation - but so far none have been reached.