Oil Prices Fail to Rise Amid Ongoing War

The US-Israel war on Iran has been ongoing for 143 days, and despite predictions of catastrophic consequences for oil prices and global supply, the impact has been more muted than expected.

Many analysts had forecast a severe disruption to the global economy due to the conflict, but so far, crude prices have not risen significantly. According to energy economist Claudio Galimberti, if the price of benchmark crude, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), remained above $140 per barrel for several months, even big economies like the US could fall into recession.

However, as of February 28, when the war began, WTI prices have not surpassed $113. In fact, there have been only 21 trading days since the war started when WTI sold for over $100 per barrel, which is less than 20% of the days oil has traded between February 28 and July 20.

Not all experts agree that the consequences will be severe. Geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan argues that forecasts about extreme impacts weren't wrong, but rather premature. He suggests that the more drastic consequences predicted may not have shown up yet, but could appear later this summer.