Oil Prices Refuse to Budge Above $100 Amidst Regional Disruptions

Despite recent supply disruptions in the Middle East, Brent crude oil prices have remained below $100 per barrel. One reason for this is that significant volumes of oil have been able to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route.

According to Rystad Energy's Chief Economist Claudio Galimberti, while flows have fallen to below 2 million barrels per day (bpd) since the recent escalation in the US-Iran conflict, the daily moving average is still around 4-5 million bpd. This puts Brent at a 'fair' price of $95.

Gulf exporters are using alternative routes and means to mitigate some of the earlier shortfall. Saudi Aramco has resumed loadings from its Ras Tanura port inside the Gulf, while exports from the alternative port of Egypt's Sidi Kerir have increased.

Non-Opec producers such as the US, Canada, and Guyana are also set to increase output by a combined 1.4 million bpd this year, partly filling the shortfall.