Oil Prices Revised Upward Amid Prolonged Supply Disruptions

Oil price forecasts have been revised upward for the third time since the Iran conflict began in late February, according to a Reuters poll of economists and analysts. The latest estimates suggest that Brent crude will average $90.44 per barrel in 2026, up from last month's forecast of $86.38.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also reduced its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2026, citing weaker macroeconomic conditions and slower consumption growth. The EIA expects demand to fall by about 420,000 barrels per day in 2026.

Analysts attribute the upward revision of oil price forecasts to the prolonged disruption of energy supplies caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite a ceasefire in place, energy flows are expected to take months to normalize, and trade through the Strait may not reach pre-crisis levels until July.