Oil Prices Rise on Geopolitical Risks and Oversupply Concerns

Oil price forecasts for 2026 have been revised upward due to rising geopolitical tensions and supply risks. According to a survey of 34 economists and analysts, Brent crude is expected to average $63.85 per barrel in 2026, up from January's forecast of $62.02.

U.S. crude is projected to average $60.38 per barrel, compared with January's estimate of $58.72. The increased risk premium attributed to potential conflicts between the U.S. and Iran has added $4 to $10 per barrel to oil prices.

Analysts expect a market surplus in 2026, ranging from 0.8 million to 3.5 million barrels per day, which will be influenced by China's stockpiling efforts. A slowdown in these efforts could exacerbate the oversupply and put downward pressure on prices.