Oil Prices Soar as US-Iran Conflict Enters New Phase
Oil prices surged to nearly $110 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since July, as tensions between the US and Iran continue to escalate. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for attacking eight oil tankers and two U.S. Navy destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz, while CENTCOM denied the IRGC's claims.
The ongoing conflict is expected to continue through the third quarter, with little sign of diplomatic progress or relief from export restrictions. Standard Chartered analysts predict a return to $77.50 per barrel by 2027, driven by increased demand and strategic reserve replenishment.
Refined products are particularly vulnerable to disruptions, as consumers increasingly value optionality in crude grades, suppliers, and refining configurations. The energy market is characterized by more frequent and sharper upside price spikes, with a fatter upside tail and greater volatility.