Oil Revenue at Risk: Algeria and Nigeria Face 87% and 60% Decline

Algeria and Nigeria could face significant losses in oil revenue due to declining global demand after 2030, according to a report by climate and foreign-policy think tank E3G. The report warns that Algeria could lose as much as 87% of its oil revenue, while Nigeria may see more than 60% decline.

The figures are projections rather than predictions, and the outcome will depend on various factors such as the speed of the energy transition, future oil prices, production costs, and the ability of exporting countries to diversify their economies. The E3G report examines how governments and markets could respond as global oil consumption reaches a plateau and begins to contract.

Both Algeria and Nigeria heavily rely on hydrocarbons for revenue, with state-owned Sonatrach central to Algeria's economy. Nigeria is also pursuing increased production to meet growing demand, aiming to increase crude output to three million barrels a day by 2030. However, new production could generate substantial revenue before global demand weakens, particularly if the countries can supply oil at competitive costs.