OPEC+ Keeps Oil Quotas Flat Despite Hormuz Disruptions

OPEC+ has maintained its oil output policy for October, keeping quotas flat as the group continues to grapple with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The decision, made by seven core members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is seen as a non-event for oil prices since it confirms a roadmap already priced into the market.

The Iran war has significantly narrowed OPEC+'s practical influence over the physical market, even as the group continues to raise quotas on paper. In August, OPEC+ completed the phased unwinding of a 1.65 million barrel per day cut first agreed in 2023, but actual production remains well below those targets.

The real test for OPEC+'s influence will come only once Hormuz fully reopens, at which point the group could shift abruptly from managing constrained exports to confronting a potential surplus. The seven-member sub-group is due to meet again on 4 October.