OPEC+ Meeting Looms: Can WTI Crude Hold Above $80?
The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on August 2 will be crucial in determining the future of oil production. According to Reuters, OPEC+ is likely to approve an additional 188,000 bpd production hike in September as part of a planned gradual reduction in voluntary output cuts. However, Gulf exports remain disrupted, and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are far below normal levels due to ongoing geopolitical concerns.
Crude and refined product exports through the Strait averaged 2.9 million bpd during the week ended July 24, compared to 5.9 million bpd the previous week, according to Barclays. The resumption of loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal has provided some relief, but analysts continue to highlight the risk of further attacks in the Red Sea and near Saudi oil facilities.
Natural gas fundamentals remain positive despite inventory levels being above average. The US Energy Information Administration estimates dry natural gas production will average 111.25 Bcf/d in 2026, while LNG exports are expected to increase to 17.4 Bcf/d from 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025 due to new capacity coming online.