OPEC+ Pauses Oil Production Hike Plans After September

OPEC+ is set to pause its planned oil production increases after September, according to sources. The group will complete the phased reversal of voluntary output cuts by increasing production by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September.

The pause will leave around 2 million bpd of OPEC+-wide production cuts in place while the group negotiates new production quotas for 2027. The future output policy will depend on several factors, including the evolution of the Middle East conflict and a review of members' maximum sustainable production capacity.

The seven core producers, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, are still expected to approve the September production target increase at their August 2 meeting. However, some members, including Iraq, are seeking higher production quotas, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the oil market could face a surplus in 2027 if flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalize.