OPEC+ Pushes Ahead with Output Increase Amid Red Sea Disruptions
OPEC+ is set to raise its September output target by around 188,000 barrels per day (bpd), despite ongoing supply disruptions in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. The group's core members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, are expected to confirm this increase at their meeting on August 2.
This planned hike matches the size of the increments already applied for June, July, and August, continuing a gradual and largely pre-scheduled unwind. However, the actual export capacity of some members remains constrained by the conflict, meaning increases in physical barrels reaching buyers may not materialize.
The widening gap between OPEC+'s formal quota policy and the physical realities of the market has been evident for months. Brent crude surged 7 percent to above $100 a barrel on Thursday, its highest level in nearly two months, following Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea.
The group's approach reflects a persistent problem: several key members have had their actual export capacity constrained by the conflict for months. The latest escalation only deepens this gap, with any September quota increase likely to be symbolic unless shipping conditions improve materially before then.