OPEC+ Quotas Unchanged, Strait of Hormuz Dominates Oil Prices

OPEC+ maintained its October production quotas unchanged at its recent meeting, but the Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant driver of oil prices.

The Brent crude price has reached a high of $97.91 per barrel since July 27, and it continues to rise despite OPEC+'s decision.

This is because actual production is far below nominal targets, rendering quota adjustments largely ineffective in the current environment.

Citi has raised its forecast for the average Brent crude price in the third quarter of 2026 to $86 per barrel, citing prolonged supply disruptions caused by the strait's reduced flow and the U.S. blockade on Iran.