OPEC+ Set for Last Oil Output Hike as War Disrupts Global Supplies

OPEC+ is expected to raise its oil production quotas for September as the Middle East war continues to disrupt global energy supplies. According to Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, the group will likely increase production by 188,000 barrels per day, following several months of similar hikes.

This would be the last in the current series of production adjustments, Leon said. OPEC+ had previously cut oil production by nearly six million barrels per day to address falling prices between late 2022 and 2023.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman, and the UAE - before their exit on May 1 - have been gradually upping production since 2025. However, many OPEC+ members are struggling to produce as much oil as their official targets allow due to a decline in production capacity.

The Gulf countries have faced difficulties increasing exports due to the near-paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz orchestrated by Iran during the war. Russia's oil infrastructure has been repeatedly targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks, with production hovering at around 9 million barrels per day - compared to a target of 9.8 million barrels per day.