OPEC+ Set for Stable Output Quota Decision Amid Tensions Over 2027 Baseline Reassessments

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) is set to maintain its October production policy unchanged at Sunday's online meeting, as attention shifts to contentious 2027 output quota negotiations.

With the alliance completing the phased exit from one round of production cuts this month, the urgency to adjust supply policy in the near term has diminished. The meeting will involve seven core members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman.

The actual production has consistently lagged planned increases, despite these countries raising output quotas month by month for much of this year. This is due to disruptions in oil export routes caused by the Iran and Ukraine conflicts.

The 2027 production baselines will be reassessed, with DeGolyer and MacNaughton's capacity assessments expected to pave the way for difficult negotiations before new quotas are finalized by year-end. Several members, including Iraq, want higher quotas to reflect their expanded capacity.