OPEC+ Set to Keep Oil Output Policy Unchanged Despite Disruptions

OPEC+ is likely to keep its oil output policy unchanged for October at a meeting on Sunday, as the group completes the unwinding of one layer of production cuts this month and turns its focus to 2027 quota negotiations. This comes as the Iran war continues to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing OPEC+’s influence over prices and market share.

The meeting will involve seven core OPEC+ members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman. These countries have been raising monthly production quotas for most of this year, but actual output has lagged the planned quota increases due to disruptions in exports from the Gulf, Russia, and Kazakhstan.

OPEC+ comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia. The group still has another layer of production cuts in place, covering most members until the end of 2026. It is also reviewing members’ oil production capacity to determine 2027 output baselines, which form the basis for quotas.

Texas-based DeGolyer and MacNaughton is conducting the review for most members, with a report expected to be submitted to OPEC at the end of September. This could pave the way for difficult negotiations before the group sets new production baselines at its year-end meeting.