OPEC+ Set to Raise Oil Output Targets Amid Gulf Export Uncertainty

The OPEC+ alliance is set to raise oil output targets from September 2025, marking a significant shift in their strategy. The seven core producers within OPEC+, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have been gradually unwinding the 2023 supply cut agreement since April.

As of June, OPEC's own figures show that the group produced approximately 36.28 million barrels per day, compared to nearly 43 million bpd in February before the Iran conflict disrupted Gulf export flows. This represents a shortfall of roughly 6.7 million bpd relative to pre-war production levels.

The proposed September hike would effectively complete the full unwind of the 2023 supply agreement when adjusted for the UAE's exit, and formally transition the alliance from managed supply discipline back to volume-led competition.