OPEC+ Set to Raise Oil Production Quotas Again Amid Middle East Disruptions

OPEC+ is expected to raise its oil production quotas for September, but it may be the last increase in the current series. The group's members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have been gradually increasing production since 2025 after cutting output by nearly six million barrels per day between late 2022 and 2023.

The current increase of 188,000 barrels per day is seen as a completion of the unwinding of the second of three production-cut packages introduced by OPEC+. However, some analysts have questioned the effectiveness of these increases, citing a decline in production capacity among member countries. For instance, Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure has been targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks, and Iraq's production is hovering at around 9 million barrels per day, short of its target of 9.8 million.

As OPEC+ sets new maximum sustainable capacity levels for all member states, the group faces potentially difficult talks over new production quotas starting next year. The UAE's withdrawal from the group in May has highlighted a weakness in cohesion among members.