OPEC+ Sticks to Unchanged Output Policy Amid Ongoing Disruptions

The OPEC+ group of major oil producers has decided to maintain its output policy unchanged for October, according to a recent announcement. The decision was made during a meeting between seven core members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman. This comes as the Iran war continues to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting OPEC's influence over prices and market share.

In August, OPEC agreed to its production boost for September, which completed a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023. However, despite the agreed production increases, the group still produces far below its targets due to the ongoing war. Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy noted that OPEC currently has 'very limited power over the physical oil market,' and can change production targets on paper but cannot guarantee those barrels will be produced or reach the market.

OPEC+ still has another layer of production cuts in place, covering most members of the 21-country group until the end of 2026. Before deciding how to unwind these cuts and return production to the market, the group needs to review its members' oil production capacity to set 2027 output baselines, which form the basis for quotas. This debate will likely happen later in 2026, leading sources to predict that OPEC+ will pause its output increases for the fourth quarter.