Pakistan Gas Sector Faces Declining Production and Uncertain Future

The gas sector in Pakistan is facing significant challenges due to declining indigenous production and subdued LNG demand. According to a recent study by the Pakistan Credit Rating Agency (Pacra), indigenous gas production is expected to fall sharply from around 2,634 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) in FY24 to approximately 1,266 mmcfd by FY34.

This decline will result in a significant reduction of domestic gas share in total supply, from around 73% to just 25%. LNG imports have also fallen, decreasing from six million tonnes to approximately 3.7 million tonnes during the first nine months of FY26.

The study suggests that the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) and Iran-Pakistan pipelines can provide greater diversification of gas supplies over the longer term, but their contribution to Pakistan's near-term energy requirements remains uncertain due to continued delays.