Pape Predicts 70% Chance of US-Iran Ground War Amid Critical Oil Shortage
The United States is on the brink of war with Iran, according to Robert Pape, a political scientist who has advised every White House since George W. Bush. Pape believes there's a 70% probability that American ground troops will be ordered onto Iranian soil within weeks due to a critical shortage of emergency oil reserves. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since 1983, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global economic crisis.
Pape argues that President Trump's current military options won't succeed in reopening the strait, and he believes Trump knows this but is choosing to escalate anyway. This decision would make Iran the regional hegemon, according to Pape, or the U.S. must take it back physically.
The crisis has reached its most dangerous inflection point since the war began on February 28. The reopening of the Strait is not just a military problem but also requires convincing commercial shipping companies and their insurers that the strait is safe. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, having seized control in response to U.S. bombing, and Pape's models predicted this outcome.