Commodities
Permian Basin Drives Record U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast
U.S. crude oil production is on track to reach a record average of 13.8 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2026, driven by continued growth in the Permian basin and rising output from new projects in the federal Gulf of America.
The forecast comes from the U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which surpasses the previous annual record of 13.7 MMbpd set in 2025.
Most of this year's growth is concentrated in the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico, where production is expected to average 6.8 MMbpd in 2026, up 3% from 2025.
The stronger price environment, with WTI crude averaging $84/bbl through August, is supporting drilling activity and continued production gains across the Permian.