Platinum Outperforms Gold as Correlation Shifts and Deficit Looms

The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) is forecasting a modest surplus of 265,000 ounces in platinum for 2026, up from its previous forecast of a deficit of 297,000 to 283,000 ounces.

This shift in market conditions comes despite the current macroeconomic environment, where inflation fears and expectations of interest rate hikes are driving down precious metal prices, including platinum.

The WPIC's Edward Sterck notes that while the market appears to be in surplus, it is actually showing signs of a return to deficit due to improved investment demand. He states, 'We're back in deficit market conditions already.'

A key factor driving this shift is the increasing correlation between platinum and gold prices. The WPIC reports that the relationship between these two metals has changed dramatically since 2024, with the correlation rising from a negative -0.15 to a strongly positive 0.95.