Poland's Wheat Prices Soar as Ukrainian Exports Plummet

The price of wheat in Poland has reached an all-time high of 1,000 zlotys per metric ton at the Port of Gdańsk, approximately 11,500 hryvnias. This surge is largely attributed to a projected sharp decline in Ukrainian wheat exports during the 2026/27 season.

European analysts forecast that Ukraine will be able to export only 5-10 million metric tons of wheat, a significant decrease from the 15.7 million metric tons exported in the 2024/25 season and 14 million metric tons in 2025/26. This estimate is more pessimistic than the U.S. Department of Agriculture's prediction of 13.5 million metric tons.

The decline in exports is attributed to operational issues at the ports of Greater Odesa, congestion on alternative logistics routes, and the risk of further escalation of hostilities in the Black Sea. As a result, wheat prices in Poland have diverged significantly from those in Ukraine, with Polish farmers earning approximately 1,000 zlotys or 11,500 UAH per metric ton, while Ukrainian farmers are forced to sell their grain at lower prices.