Polish Wheat Prices Soar Amid Ukraine Export Concerns

Wheat prices at Polish ports have increased amid growing concerns about grain supplies from the Black Sea region. On August 21, bids at the ports of Gdansk and Gdynia reached PLN 1,000/t, while the highest prices on Poland's domestic market were around PLN 900/t a day earlier.

Mateusz Palejko, an analyst at Agri Commodity Experts, attributes these price increases to expectations of a significant decline in Ukrainian wheat exports. He estimates shipments could fall to just 5-10 million tons, compared with 14 million tons last season and 15.7 million tons in the previous marketing year.

The main reason for this expected decline is the effective blockade of the Greater Odesa ports, which are the key gateway for large-scale grain shipments. Redirecting cargoes to the Danube and overland routes cannot fully compensate for the loss of deep-sea port capacity.