Qatar's LNG Exports Hit Hard by US-Iran Conflict

Qatar's economy is facing significant challenges due to disruptions in its liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports caused by the US-Iran conflict. The country's LNG export capacity was cut by approximately 17% after Iranian strikes on the Ras Laffan LNG complex in mid-March and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This has resulted in annual revenue losses of around $20 billion.

The Qatari government's Q1 2026 budget deficit came in at QR10.3 billion, equivalent to $2.83 billion, after revenues fell 23.5% year-over-year. To plug the gap, the government raised approximately $3 billion through bond issuances, a significant departure from recent fiscal history.

Qatar's GDP forecasts for 2026 vary widely, with S&P projecting a 5% contraction and Capital Economics predicting a potential 14% decline. The main uncertainty lies in how long Hormuz disruptions persist, which will impact Qatar's revenue projections through the decade.